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Llapi 1-2 Drita

Superliga · Matchweek 10
Llapi
12
Full-timeHT 0-0
Drita
78'Aliu
Limaj47'Balaj50'
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
75%
Clearleague base 74%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Drita win
49%±7
Notableleague base 30%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · LLA 24% · X 27% · DRİ 49%Predicted score 0-2 · Most likely: 0-1 13% · 1-1 12% · 0-2 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Llapi
24%±5
Draw
27%±2
Drita✓
49%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Drita savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %58 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Drita hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Llapi'ın gol beklentisini %14 artırıyor
  • Llapi savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Llapi hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-2 9%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

0-1 13%1-1 12%0-2 9%0-0 9%1-2 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals LLA 0.95 · DRİ 1.47

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓71%
  • 3+ goals✓46% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals25%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: LLA 23% · DRİ 39%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
Blerim Krasniqiexpected 80'29%
E. Gashijaniexpected 90'23%
A. Dabiqajexpected 90'18%
V. Limajexpected 68'11%
L. Balajexpected 47'10%
V. Tushaexpected 33'10%
I. Blakçoriexpected 78'7%
A. Manajexpected 22'7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

17 October 2026: the Superliga matchday 10 match ended Llapi 1-2 Drita. Goals: V. Limaj 47', L. Balaj 50', A. Aliu 78'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record