Levski Sofia 3-0 Septemvri Sofia
First League · Matchweek 3Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Levski Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %69 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Septemvri Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %29 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Levski Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %39 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Septemvri Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Levski Sofia'ın gol beklentisini %14 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 4-0 8%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals LEV 2.62 · SSO 0.52
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 3 goals 22%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓80%
- 3+ goals✓58% ±7
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals36%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±3 · clean sheet: LEV 60% · SSO 7%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: LEV 7 · SSO 0
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Marijan Grebencharski · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia (First League matchday 3, 1 August 2026) finished 3-0. Goals: A. Bouras 34', A. Oko-Flex 76', Serginho 79'. Match stats: possession Levski Sofia 63%, Septemvri Sofia 37%; shots on target 6-0.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record