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Leatherhead 2-2 Ramsgate

FA Trophy · Final
Leatherhead
22
Full-timeHT 1-0
Ramsgate
Sat 26 Sept 2026, 17:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
78%
Clearleague base 83%calibrated
retrospective hit
The model sees no second or third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · LEA 41% · X 25% · RAM 34%Predicted score 2-2 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 9% · 1-0 8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Leatherhead
41%±8
Draw✓
25%±2
Ramsgate
34%±8
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Ramsgate hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %28 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Leatherhead savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %24 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Ramsgate savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Leatherhead'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor (ülke kupası maçlarındaki iç saha etkisi)
  • Leatherhead hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-2 6%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 9%1-0 8%1-2 8%0-1 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals LEA 1.55 · RAM 1.38

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 23%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓78%
  • 3+ goals✓56% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓35%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: LEA 25% · RAM 21%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
L. Martinexpected 87'26%
T. Jadamaexpected 87'26%
J. Taylorexpected 90'8%
J. Greenexpected 90'8%
A. Youngexpected 90'8%
M. Westexpected 90'8%
J. Parterexpected 90'8%
B. Anidugbeexpected 76'7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Leatherhead vs Ramsgate (FA Trophy final, 26 September 2026) finished 2-2.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Leatherhead · next match
Ramsgate · next match