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Juventud 1-0 Progreso

Primera División · Apertura - 11
Juventud
10
Full-timeHT 1-0
Progreso
43'Mimbacas
Referee E. GuerraSun 12 Apr 2026, 21:30

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
78%
Clearleague base 70%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Juventud win
53%±7
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
Both teams score: yes
55%±4
Notableleague base 52%calibrated
retrospective miss
Match result · JUV 53% · X 23% · PRO 24%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 10% · 1-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Juventud✓
53%±7
Draw
23%±2
Progreso
24%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Juventud savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Juventud hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Juventud'ın gol beklentisini %7 artırıyor
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 9%1-2 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals JUV 1.82 · PRO 1.14

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 23%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals78%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals56% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals33%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: JUV 32% · PRO 16%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
29%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee E. Guerra · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
P. Lagoexpected 66'25%
A. Alanizexpected 81'19%
F. Barrandeguyexpected 90'18%
R. Viegaexpected 76'16%
B. Larreguiexpected 88'16%
A. Rossoexpected 83'13%
R. Sánchezexpected 66'13%
G. Andradaexpected 90'12%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Juventud vs Progreso (Primera División, 12 April 2026) finished 1-0. Goals: F. Mimbacas 43'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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