Jong Utrecht 1-6 Heracles
Eerste Divisie · Matchweek 3Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: T. van Gilst 8.7 · F. de Keijzer 8.2 · Mario Borac 8.0
Match analysis
5 sections15:46Jong Utrecht lost to Heracles 1-6 in the Eerste Divisie matchday 3 on 24 August 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-5 at half-time. Heracles scored first, in the 3rd minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 3' T. van Gilst (penalty) → 0-1; 7' S. Scheperman → 0-2; 37' J. N'djoli → 0-3; 39' T. van Gilst, assisted by D. van der Kust → 0-4; 45' M. Borac, assisted by C. Abbas → 0-5; 51' B. Menzo → 1-5; 59' J. N'djoli, assisted by T. Bruns → 1-6.
Yellow cards: Jong Utrecht 0, Heracles 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Jong Utrecht 1.89, Heracles 2.15; shots 15-20 (5-10 on target); possession 44%-56%; corners 2-7.
Goals by half: 0-5 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
Bjorn Menzo was Jong Utrecht's highest-rated player at 7.2 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 2 shots on target, 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 4 of 9 duels.
T. van Gilst was Heracles's highest-rated player at 8.7 in 82 minutes: 2 goals, 2 shots on target, 2 key passes, won 3 of 6 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Jong Utrecht 18%, draw 18%, Heracles 63%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
24 August 2026: the Eerste Divisie matchday 3 match ended Jong Utrecht 1-6 Heracles. Goals: T. van Gilst 3' (pen), S. Scheperman 7', J. N'djoli 37', T. van Gilst 39', M. Borac 45', B. Menzo 51', J. N'djoli 59'. Match stats: possession Jong Utrecht 44%, Heracles 56%; shots on target 5-10; expected goals (xG) 1.89-2.15.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.