Inter 4-1 Monza
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Inter hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %67 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Inter savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %38 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Monza hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %16 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Monza savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Inter'ın gol beklentisini %8 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 3-0 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals INT 2.40 · MON 0.62
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 3 goals 23%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓80%
- 3+ goals✓58% ±10
- 4+ goals✓34%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±5 · clean sheet: INT 54% · MON 8%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: INT 3 · MON 3
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Livio Marinelli · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
22 August 2026: the Serie A matchday 1 match ended Inter 4-1 Monza. Goals: H. Calhanoglu 6', G. Varela 29', P. Zielinski 48', F. Esposito 55', Y. Bisseck 63'. Match stats: possession Inter 70%, Monza 30%; shots on target 5-3; expected goals (xG) 1.05-1.23.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record