Inter 2-1 Fiorentina
Model accuracy
Locked 25 Oct 14:10The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: M. Thuram 8.2 · P. Zieliński 7.8 · A. Diouf 7.7
Match analysis
5 sections20:44Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 in the Serie A matchday 8 on 25 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Fiorentina scored first, in the 65th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 65' Álex Jiménez, assisted by Nicolo Fagioli → 0-1; 90+1' Marcus Thuram, assisted by Andy Diouf → 1-1; 90+7' Piotr Zieliński (penalty) → 2-1.
Yellow cards: Inter 0, Fiorentina 3.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Inter 2.94, Fiorentina 0.25; shots 33-7 (11-2 on target); possession 63%-37%; corners 6-1.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 2.69.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 2-1 in the second. Shots: 9-3 before the break, 24-4 after it.
Standout players
M. Thuram was Inter's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 4 shots on target, 2 key passes, 3 tackles, won 8 of 13 duels. Minute markers: shot on target ≈35–36', shot on target ≈42–45', goal ≈92–93'.
N. Fagioli was Fiorentina's highest-rated player at 7.4 in 90 minutes: 1 assist, 1 key pass, 1 tackle, won 4 of 7 duels. Minute markers: successful dribble ≈62–63', assist ≈66–67', key pass ≈66–67'.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Inter win 76% (80% interval 69%–82%), draw 14%, Fiorentina win 10%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Expected goals in the model: Inter 2.63, Fiorentina 1.03. Chance of 3+ goals: 71%; both teams to score: 60%.
The model's most likely outcome was Inter win (76%); the actual result was Inter win (76%). The outcome call was a hit. Its most likely score was 2-1, which was exactly right.
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Inter vs Fiorentina (Serie A matchday 8, 25 October 2026) finished 2-1. Goals: Álex Jiménez 65', Marcus Thuram 90+1', Piotr Zieliński 90+7' (pen). Match stats: possession Inter 63%, Fiorentina 37%; shots on target 11-2; expected goals (xG) 2.94-0.25. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Inter win 76% (80% interval 69%–82%), draw 14%, Fiorentina win 10%. The outcome call was a hit, and the exact score was correct.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.