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Inter 1-1 Atletico Balboa

Primera Division · Apertura - 12
Inter
11
Full-timeHT 1-0
Atletico Balboa
38'Guillen
Landazuri85'
Sun 27 Sept 2026, 03:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
75%
Clearleague base 74%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Inter win
47%±10
Notableleague base 38%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · INT 47% · X 27% · ABA 27%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-1 13% · 1-0 12% · 0-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Inter
47%±10
Draw✓
27%±3
Atletico Balboa
27%±8
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Inter savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Inter'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Atletico Balboa savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Atletico Balboa hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Inter hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 12%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 13%1-0 12%0-0 9%2-1 9%2-0 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals INT 1.44 · ABA 1.01

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓71%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals47% ±8
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals25%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: INT 36% · ABA 24%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

27 September 2026: the Primera Division match ended Inter 1-1 Atletico Balboa. Goals: L. E. Vasquez Guillen 38', V. Landazuri 85'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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