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Inter 2-0 Alianza

Primera Division · Apertura - 4
Inter
20
Full-timeHT 1-0
Alianza
10'Guardado90'Mauricio
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 02:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
79%
Clearleague base 74%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Alianza win
50%±9
Notableleague base 34%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · INT 22% · X 28% · ALİ 50%Predicted score 0-1 · Most likely: 0-1 15% · 1-1 12% · 0-0 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Inter✓
22%±6
Draw
28%±3
Alianza
50%±9
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Alianza savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %49 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Alianza hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %25 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Inter hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Inter'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
  • Inter savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %1 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 0-1 15%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

0-1 15%1-1 12%0-0 11%0-2 10%1-2 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals INT 0.84 · ALİ 1.40

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓68%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals42% ±5
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals21%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: INT 25% · ALİ 43%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Inter vs Alianza (Primera Division, 8 August 2026) finished 2-0. Goals: C. Guardado 10', E. Mauricio 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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