Independiente 2-0 Lanus
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: F. Zabala 7.9 · K. Lomónaco 7.9 · G. Ávalos 7.7
Match analysis
5 sections00:49Independiente beat Lanus 2-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 13 February 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Independiente scored first, in the 57th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 57' M. Abaldo, assisted by I. Malcorra → 1-0; 63' G. Avalos, assisted by L. Millan → 2-0.
Luciano Cabral (Independiente) was sent off in the 90th minute; VAR intervened 1 time; yellow cards: Independiente 4, Lanus 2.
Statistical comparison
Shots 17-5 (3-0 on target); possession 59%-41%; corners 7-1.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 2-0 in the second.
Standout players
F. Zabala was Independiente's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 100 minutes: 3 key passes, 1 tackle, won 6 of 10 duels.
A. Cardozo was Lanus's highest-rated player at 7.2 in 100 minutes: 2 tackles, won 8 of 9 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Independiente 45%, draw 31%, Lanus 23%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Independiente vs Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina, 13 February 2026) finished 2-0. Goals: M. Abaldo 57', G. Avalos 63'. Match stats: possession Independiente 59%, Lanus 41%; shots on target 3-0.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.