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IK brage 3-4 Oddevold

Superettan · Matchweek 2
IK brage
34
Full-timeHT 1-3
Oddevold
42'Lundin53'Sporrong74'Nordh
Olblad6'Almqvist9'Shahin33'Sandberg (P)89'
Referee Fredrik AlknasSun 12 Apr 2026, 16:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
75%
Clearleague base 76%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
IK brage win
48%±7
Notableleague base 43%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · BRA 48% · X 25% · ODD 27%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 12% · 1-0 10% · 2-1 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
IK brage
48%±7
Draw
25%±2
Oddevold✓
27%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • İç saha avantajı: IK brage'ın gol beklentisini %13 artırıyor
  • IK brage hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Oddevold savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Oddevold hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %7 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • IK brage savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %0 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%2-0 8%0-1 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals BRA 1.58 · ODD 1.14

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 24%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓75%
  • 3+ goals✓51% ±7
  • 4+ goals✓29%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±5 · clean sheet: BRA 32% · ODD 21%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
10%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee Fredrik Alknas · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
Amar Muhsinexpected 70'33%
R. Wiedesheim-Paulexpected 63'21%
F. Trpcevskiexpected 68'15%
G. Sandbergexpected 70'13%
G. Berggrenexpected 89'11%
A. Lundinexpected 61'10%
H. Brkicexpected 55'9%
E. Derviskadicexpected 72'9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

12 April 2026: the Superettan matchday 2 match ended IK brage 3-4 Oddevold. Goals: O. Kjellman Olblad 6', A. Almqvist 9', L. Shahin 33', A. Lundin 42', A. Sporrong 53', G. Nordh 74', G. Sandberg 89' (pen).

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Oddevold · next match