Skip to content
TR

hodd 4-3 Strommen

1. Division · Matchweek 18
hodd
43
Full-timeHT 3-1
Strommen
18'Haheim-Elveseter30'Mikkelsen41'Haheim-Elveseter66'Skotheim
Paulsen33'Rogne85'Hristov90'
Nye Høddvoll Stadion, UlsteinvikReferee M. TennoySun 16 Aug 2026, 18:00capacity 4,081

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
67%
Clearleague base 58%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Both teams score: yes
56%±3
Notableleague base 63%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
hodd win
50%±6
Notableleague base 44%calibrated
retrospective hit
Match result · HOD 50% · X 24% · STR 26%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 9% · 1-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
hodd✓
50%±6
Draw
24%±2
Strommen
26%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Strommen hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %20 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • hodd hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %17 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: hodd'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
  • Strommen savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • hodd savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %7 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 9%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 9%1-0 9%2-0 8%1-2 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals HOD 1.75 · STR 1.21

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 23%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓78%
  • 3+ goals✓56% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓33%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: HOD 30% · STR 18%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
11%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee M. Tennoy · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
No player probabilities for this match.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

hodd vs Strommen (1. Division matchday 18, 16 August 2026) finished 4-3. Goals: M. Haheim-Elveseter 18', S. Mikkelsen 30', M. Paulsen 33', M. Haheim-Elveseter 41', I. Skotheim 66', E. Rogne 85', N. Hristov 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

hodd · next match
Strommen · next match