Heracles 3-1 Excelsior
Eredivisie · Matchweek 4Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: J. Hoogma 8.3 · B. De Keersmaecker 8.3 · B. Limbombe 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections09:42Heracles beat Excelsior 3-1 in the Eredivisie matchday 4 on 2 September 2023.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Heracles came from behind in the second half to win. Excelsior scored first, in the 19th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 19' N. Agrafiotis, assisted by L. Lamprou → 0-1; 54' B. Limbombe, assisted by E. Hansson → 1-1; 60' J. Hoogma, assisted by E. Hansson → 2-1; 85' M. Sankoh, assisted by B. De Keersmaecker → 3-1.
Lazaros Lamprou (Excelsior) was sent off in the 56th minute; yellow cards: Heracles 1, Excelsior 4.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Heracles 1.35, Excelsior 0.45; shots 15-9 (5-3 on target); possession 63%-37%; corners 8-1; pass accuracy 85%-75%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 0.90.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 3-0 in the second.
Standout players
J. Hoogma was Heracles's highest-rated player at 8.3 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 13 of 16 duels.
J. Baas was Excelsior's highest-rated player at 7.3 in 63 minutes: 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 4 of 7 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
2 September 2023: the Eredivisie matchday 4 match ended Heracles 3-1 Excelsior. Goals: N. Agrafiotis 19', B. Limbombe 54', J. Hoogma 60', M. Sankoh 85'. Match stats: possession Heracles 63%, Excelsior 37%; shots on target 5-3; expected goals (xG) 1.35-0.45.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.