Heracles 2-4 Ajax
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: S. Berghuis 9.7 · K. Hlynsson 9.2 · B. Tahirović 8.2
Match analysis
5 sections21:0027 January 2024: the Eredivisie matchday 19 match ended Heracles 2-4 Ajax.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-1 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Heracles scored first, in the 12th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 12' J. Hornkamp, assisted by J. Wieckhoff → 1-0; 16' B. Brobbey, assisted by B. Tahirović → 1-1; 55' S. Berghuis, assisted by K. Hlynsson → 1-2; 57' B. Brobbey, assisted by J. Hato → 1-3; 60' M. Engels, assisted by M. Brouwer → 2-3; 84' K. Hlynsson, assisted by D. Rensch → 2-4.
Yellow cards: Heracles 2, Ajax 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Heracles 1.01, Ajax 4.00; shots 13-31 (7-12 on target); possession 27%-73%; corners 3-11; pass accuracy 76%-91%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 2.99.
Goals by half: 1-1 in the first, 1-3 in the second.
Standout players
J. Hoogma was Heracles's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 3 tackles, won 5 of 6 duels.
S. Berghuis was Ajax's highest-rated player at 9.7 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 2 shots on target, 8 key passes, 3 tackles, won 5 of 9 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Heracles vs Ajax (Eredivisie matchday 19, 27 January 2024) finished 2-4. Goals: J. Hornkamp 12', B. Brobbey 16', S. Berghuis 55', B. Brobbey 57', M. Engels 60', K. Hlynsson 84'. Match stats: possession Heracles 27%, Ajax 73%; shots on target 7-12; expected goals (xG) 1.01-4.00.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology


Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.