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Helsingborg 2-2 Oddevold

Superettan · Matchweek 7
Helsingborg
22
Full-timeHT 0-1
Oddevold
79'Hyppanen81'Persson
Shahin15'Forssell55'
Olympia, HelsingborgReferee Farouk NehdiWed 13 May 2026, 20:00capacity 16,673

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
78%
Clearleague base 76%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Both teams score: yes
56%±4
Notableleague base 56%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
Helsingborg win
48%±8
Notableleague base 43%calibrated
retrospective miss
Match result · HEL 48% · X 24% · ODD 28%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 11% · 2-1 10% · 1-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Helsingborg
48%±8
Draw✓
24%±2
Oddevold
28%±7
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • İç saha avantajı: Helsingborg'ın gol beklentisini %12 artırıyor
  • Helsingborg hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Helsingborg savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Oddevold savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %4 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Oddevold hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %0 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 8%1-2 7%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals HEL 1.73 · ODD 1.25

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓78%
  • 3+ goals✓56% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓33%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: HEL 29% · ODD 18%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
13%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee Farouk Nehdi · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
W. Loeperexpected 71'27%
Alexander Johanssonexpected 39'21%
G. Sandbergexpected 88'17%
R. Wiedesheim-Paulexpected 45'16%
O. Agaexpected 56'15%
E. Gigovićexpected 58'10%
M. Svenssonexpected 65'10%
V. Sundbergexpected 36'8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Helsingborg drew with Oddevold 2-2 in the Superettan matchday 7 on 13 May 2026. Goals: L. Shahin 15', G. Forssell 55', L. Hyppanen 79', L. Persson 81'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Helsingborg · next match
Oddevold · next match