Fluminense 1-2 Santos
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: Gabriel Barbosa 8.2 · Philippe Coutinho 8.0 · Gabriel Bontempo 7.7
Match analysis
5 sections23:1518 October 2026: the Serie A matchday 31 match ended Fluminense 1-2 Santos.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Santos came from behind in the second half to win. Fluminense scored first, in the 4th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 4' Rodrigo Castillo, assisted by Igor Rabello → 1-0; 49' Gabriel Barbosa, assisted by Rodinei → 1-1; 54' Philippe Coutinho, assisted by Gabriel Bontempo → 1-2.
Yellow cards: Fluminense 2, Santos 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Fluminense 1.17, Santos 2.13; shots 8-17 (2-5 on target); possession 46%-54%; corners 4-5.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 0.96.
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 0-2 in the second.
Standout players
R. Castillo was Fluminense's highest-rated player at 7.5 in 57 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, won 1 of 5 duels.
Gabriel Barbosa was Santos's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 5 key passes, won 3 of 5 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Fluminense 57%, draw 23%, Santos 20%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Fluminense vs Santos (Serie A matchday 31, 18 October 2026) finished 1-2. Goals: Rodrigo Castillo 4', Gabriel Barbosa 49', Philippe Coutinho 54'. Match stats: possession Fluminense 46%, Santos 54%; shots on target 2-5; expected goals (xG) 1.17-2.13.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.