Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba
Serie A · Matchweek 29
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: J. Savarino 10.0 · L. Acosta 8.3 · Thiago Silva 8.2
Match analysis
5 sections05:249 October 2026: the Serie A matchday 29 match ended Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Fluminense scored first, in the 30th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 30' Jefferson Savarino, assisted by Hulk → 1-0; 49' Jefferson Savarino, assisted by Thiago Silva → 2-0; 65' Jefferson Savarino, assisted by Kevin Serna → 3-0; 90+3' Luciano Acosta, assisted by Wesley Natã → 4-0.
Yellow cards: Fluminense 0, Coritiba 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Fluminense 1.77, Coritiba 1.54; shots 22-8 (10-0 on target); possession 68%-32%; corners 3-2; pass accuracy 93%-86%.
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 3-0 in the second.
Standout players
J. Savarino was Fluminense's highest-rated player at 10.0 in 79 minutes: 3 goals, 5 shots on target, 1 key pass, 1 tackle, won 4 of 6 duels.
Pedro Rangel was Coritiba's highest-rated player at 7.2 in 90 minutes: 6 saves, won 1 of 1 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Fluminense 62%, draw 22%, Coritiba 16%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
9 October 2026: the Serie A matchday 29 match ended Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba. Goals: Jefferson Savarino 30', Jefferson Savarino 49', Jefferson Savarino 65', Luciano Acosta 90+3'. Match stats: possession Fluminense 68%, Coritiba 32%; shots on target 10-0; expected goals (xG) 1.77-1.54.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.