Fluminense 3-1 Corinthians
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: K. Serna 7.9 · Renê 7.5 · Hércules 7.5
Match analysis
5 sections12:162 April 2026: the Serie A matchday 9 match ended Fluminense 3-1 Corinthians.
Read more ›Close
Result and story of the match
It was 2-0 at half-time. Fluminense scored first, in the 20th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 20' John Kennedy, assisted by K. Serna → 1-0; 45' Hercules → 2-0; 83' R. Castillo, assisted by Martinelli → 3-0; 89' Andre → 3-1.
Allan (Corinthians) was sent off in the 55th minute; yellow cards: Fluminense 1, Corinthians 4.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Fluminense 1.84, Corinthians 0.57; shots 20-12 (10-4 on target); possession 60%-40%; corners 8-10; pass accuracy 88%-83%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 1.27.
Goals by half: 2-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
K. Serna was Fluminense's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 70 minutes: 1 assist, 1 shot on target, 4 key passes, 1 tackle, won 5 of 8 duels.
Andre was Corinthians's highest-rated player at 7.3 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 4 tackles, won 7 of 18 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Fluminense 53%, draw 27%, Corinthians 20%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Fluminense beat Corinthians 3-1 in the Serie A matchday 9 on 2 April 2026. Goals: John Kennedy 20', Hercules 45', R. Castillo 83', Andre 89'. Match stats: possession Fluminense 60%, Corinthians 40%; shots on target 10-4; expected goals (xG) 1.84-0.57.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.