Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: L. Acosta 8.2 · K. Serna 7.9 · Fábio 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections18:0712 February 2026: the Serie A matchday 3 match ended Fluminense 1-0 Botafogo.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Fluminense scored first, in the 55th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 55' Luciano Acosta → 1-0.
Agustín Canobbio (Fluminense) was sent off in the 60th minute; VAR intervened 1 time; yellow cards: Fluminense 5, Botafogo 3.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Fluminense 1.66, Botafogo 0.32; shots 10-5 (5-3 on target); possession 49%-51%; corners 4-0; pass accuracy 80%-80%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 1.34.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
L. Acosta was Fluminense's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 74 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 3 key passes, 1 tackle, won 4 of 10 duels.
A. Barboza was Botafogo's highest-rated player at 7.0 in 90 minutes: 4 tackles, won 4 of 11 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Fluminense 41%, draw 28%, Botafogo 32%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Fluminense vs Botafogo (Serie A matchday 3, 12 February 2026) finished 1-0. Goals: Luciano Acosta 55'. Match stats: possession Fluminense 49%, Botafogo 51%; shots on target 5-3; expected goals (xG) 1.66-0.32.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.