Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: Samuel Lino 8.5 · A. Rossi 8.3 · Léo Ortiz 7.9
Match analysis
5 sections23:15Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 in the Serie A matchday 30 on 11 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Flamengo scored first, in the 65th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 65' Jorge Carrascal, assisted by Lucas Paquetá → 1-0.
Yellow cards: Flamengo 3, Fluminense 4.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Flamengo 1.65, Fluminense 0.65; shots 17-11 (6-3 on target); possession 43%-57%; corners 4-2; pass accuracy 89%-89%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 1.00.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
Samuel Lino was Flamengo's highest-rated player at 8.5 in 79 minutes: 2 shots on target, 1 key pass, 3 tackles, won 7 of 10 duels.
Guilherme Arana was Fluminense's highest-rated player at 7.3 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 3 of 7 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Flamengo 65%, draw 21%, Fluminense 14%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Flamengo vs Fluminense (Serie A matchday 30, 11 October 2026) finished 1-0. Goals: Jorge Carrascal 65'. Match stats: possession Flamengo 43%, Fluminense 57%; shots on target 6-3; expected goals (xG) 1.65-0.65.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.