FCSB 2-3 Auda
Conference League · Qualifying · Round 2Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- FCSB hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %29 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Auda savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %27 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: FCSB'ın gol beklentisini %17 artırıyor (Avrupa kupası maçlarındaki iç saha etkisi)
- Auda hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Lig gücü farkı: Liga I, Virsliga'den daha güçlü; bu fark iki takımın gol beklentisi dengesini %3 ev sahibi lehine kaydırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 3-0 11%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals STE 2.48 · AUD 0.64
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 3 goals 22%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓79%
- 3+ goals✓60% ±7
- 4+ goals✓37%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±4 · clean sheet: STE 53% · AUD 9%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee David Fuxman · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
23 July 2026: the UEFA Conference League match ended FCSB 2-3 Auda. Goals: E. Daskevics 5', O. Popescu 23', B. Diedhiou 32', A. Boutoutaou 71', K. Kone 90'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record