FC Eindhoven 1-3 Heracles
Eerste Divisie · Matchweek 4Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Heracles hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %55 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- FC Eindhoven hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- FC Eindhoven savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Heracles savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %11 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: FC Eindhoven'ın gol beklentisini %11 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 2-5 2%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals EIN 1.38 · HER 2.62
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 6+ goals 20%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓88%
- 3+ goals✓71% ±6
- 4+ goals✓49%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±4 · clean sheet: EIN 7% · HER 25%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: EIN 6 · HER 10
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee S. Teuben · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
FC Eindhoven vs Heracles (Eerste Divisie matchday 4, 30 August 2026) finished 1-3. Goals: D. van der Kust 40', S. Baartmans 59', D. Mirani 63', T. van Gilst 67' (pen). Match stats: possession FC Eindhoven 48%, Heracles 52%; shots on target 2-5; expected goals (xG) 0.76-1.72.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record