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Falkenbergs FF 2-1 Oddevold

Superettan · Matchweek 10
Falkenbergs FF
21
Full-timeHT 0-0
Oddevold
47'Andersson52'Kallstrom
Albin90'
Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, FalkenbergReferee Niclas KarlssonSat 30 May 2026, 16:00capacity 6,214

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
79%
Clearleague base 76%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Both teams score: yes
57%±4
Notableleague base 56%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 3
Falkenbergs FF win
52%±8
Notableleague base 43%calibrated
retrospective hit
Match result · FAL 52% · X 23% · ODD 26%Predicted score 2-1 · Most likely: 1-1 10% · 2-1 10% · 1-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Falkenbergs FF✓
52%±8
Draw
23%±2
Oddevold
26%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Falkenbergs FF hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %15 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Falkenbergs FF'ın gol beklentisini %14 artırıyor
  • Oddevold savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %7 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Falkenbergs FF savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Oddevold hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %6 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-1 10%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-1 10%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 8%1-2 6%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals FAL 1.81 · ODD 1.24

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 3 goals 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓79%
  • 3+ goals✓57% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals34%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: FAL 29% · ODD 16%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

This match: FAL 3 · ODD 8

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
13%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee Niclas Karlsson · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
Albin Anderssonexpected 80'30%
G. Sandbergexpected 90'17%
Viktor Ekblomexpected 33'17%
O. Kjellman Olbladexpected 79'13%
O. Lindbergexpected 73'13%
L. Farah Shahinexpected 49'12%
H. Källströmexpected 42'12%
G. Agudaexpected 78'11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

30 May 2026: the Superettan matchday 10 match ended Falkenbergs FF 2-1 Oddevold. Goals: A. Andersson 47', H. Kallstrom 52', J. Albin 90'. Match stats: possession Falkenbergs FF 40%, Oddevold 60%; shots on target 5-5.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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