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Enisey 4-1 Veles

First League · Matchweek 3
Enisey
41
Full-timeHT 2-0
Veles
11'Okladnikov (P)27'Okladnikov (P)51'Nadolskiy90'Lomakin
Tarasenko54'
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 12:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
72%
Clearleague base 67%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Enisey win
51%±8
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · YEN 51% · X 26% · VEL 23%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 1-1 12% · 2-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Enisey✓
51%±8
Draw
26%±3
Veles
23%±6
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • İç saha avantajı: Enisey'ın gol beklentisini %13 artırıyor
  • Enisey hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %9 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Veles savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Enisey savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Veles hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %1 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%1-1 12%2-0 10%2-1 9%0-0 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals YEN 1.54 · VEL 0.96

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓72%
  • 3+ goals✓47% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓25%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: YEN 38% · VEL 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
14%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee not announced yet; league average used. The prediction updates once the referee is assigned.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
A. Okladnikovexpected 44'12%
N. Glushkovexpected 61'11%
A. Kutjinexpected 16'10%
E. Ivanovexpected 61'9%
M. Komkovexpected 18'8%
V. Stezhkoexpected 36'7%
G. Ferreyraexpected 72'7%
A. Lomakinexpected 30'7%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Enisey vs Veles (First League matchday 3, 26 July 2026) finished 4-1. Goals: A. Okladnikov 11' (pen), A. Okladnikov 27' (pen), A. Nadolskiy 51', Z. Tarasenko 54', A. Lomakin 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Enisey · next match
Veles · next match