Empoli 2-4 Palermo
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: A. Palumbo 10.0 · D. Johnsen 8.9 · J. Seghetti 8.5
Match analysis
5 sections10:1910 October 2026: the Serie B matchday 6 match ended Empoli 2-4 Palermo.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Empoli scored first, in the 50th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 50' E. Saporiti (penalty) → 1-0; 57' J. Pohjanpalo, assisted by M. Bani → 1-1; 65' A. Palumbo, assisted by D. Johnsen → 1-2; 69' D. Johnsen, assisted by A. Palumbo → 1-3; 79' B. Popov (penalty) → 2-3; 88' T. Cassandro, assisted by A. Gabrielloni → 2-4.
VAR intervened 1 time; yellow cards: Empoli 1, Palermo 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Empoli 1.91, Palermo 4.91; shots 6-35 (2-12 on target); possession 41%-59%; corners 1-5; pass accuracy 81%-87%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 3.00.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 2-4 in the second.
Standout players
J. Seghetti was Empoli's highest-rated player at 8.5 in 90 minutes: 8 saves.
A. Palumbo was Palermo's highest-rated player at 10.0 in 79 minutes: 1 goal, 1 assist, 4 shots on target, 6 key passes, 1 tackle, won 2 of 5 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Empoli 32%, draw 27%, Palermo 41%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Empoli vs Palermo (Serie B matchday 6, 10 October 2026) finished 2-4. Goals: E. Saporiti 50' (pen), J. Pohjanpalo 57', A. Palumbo 65', D. Johnsen 69', B. Popov 79' (pen), T. Cassandro 88'. Match stats: possession Empoli 41%, Palermo 59%; shots on target 2-12; expected goals (xG) 1.91-4.91.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.