Emelec 0-2 Macara
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: F. Paz 7.9 · P. González 7.5 · R. Caicedo 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections19:51Emelec lost to Macara 0-2 in the Liga Pro on 9 December 2025.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-1 at half-time. Macara scored first, in the 45th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 45' F. Paz, assisted by P. Gonzalez → 0-1; 66' J. Morales → 0-2.
Facundo Castelli (Emelec) was sent off in the 41st minute; VAR intervened 1 time; yellow cards: Emelec 3, Macara 4.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Emelec 0.99, Macara 1.74; shots 18-11 (3-5 on target); possession 56%-44%; corners 18-0; pass accuracy 79%-74%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 0.75.
Goals by half: 0-1 in the first, 0-1 in the second.
Standout players
R. Caicedo was Emelec's highest-rated player at 7.3 in 90 minutes: 2 key passes, 2 tackles, won 8 of 15 duels.
F. Paz was Macara's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 4 of 5 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Emelec vs Macara (Liga Pro, 9 December 2025) finished 0-2. Goals: F. Paz 45', J. Morales 66'. Match stats: possession Emelec 56%, Macara 44%; shots on target 3-5; expected goals (xG) 0.99-1.74.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.