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Drita 5-3 Llapi

Superliga · Matchweek 1
Drita
53
Full-timeHT 2-2
Llapi
28'Krasniqi32'Jashari47'58'+1 goals
Ademi35'Gashijan45+2'83'
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 17:30

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
74%
Clearleague base 74%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Drita win
59%±7
Notableleague base 45%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · DRİ 59% · X 24% · LLA 17%Predicted score 2-0 · Most likely: 1-0 14% · 2-0 12% · 1-1 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Drita✓
59%±7
Draw
24%±3
Llapi
17%±4
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Drita savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %58 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Drita hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %30 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Drita'ın gol beklentisini %15 artırıyor
  • Llapi savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %13 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Llapi hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-0 12%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 14%2-0 12%1-1 11%2-1 10%0-0 8%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals DRİ 1.73 · LLA 0.80

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓72%
  • 3+ goals✓48% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓26%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: DRİ 45% · LLA 18%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

no data
No card prediction for this match.

Not enough card data in this competition; the model did not produce yellow or red card predictions.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
Blerim Krasniqiexpected 80'32%
A. Dabiqajexpected 90'21%
E. Gashijaniexpected 90'20%
V. Limajexpected 68'13%
L. Balajexpected 47'12%
V. Tushaexpected 33'11%
A. Manajexpected 22'8%
J. Pëllumbiexpected 90'8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

16 August 2026: the Superliga matchday 1 match ended Drita 5-3 Llapi. Goals: B. Krasniqi 28', I. Jashari 32', F. Ademi 35', E. Gashijan 45+2'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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