Derby 1-1 Millwall
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: C. Taylor 7.7 · J. Ward 7.6 · M. Crocombe 7.3
Match analysis
5 sections16:5510 December 2025: the Championship matchday 20 match ended Derby 1-1 Millwall.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. Derby scored first, in the 81st minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 81' M. Clarke (own goal) → 1-0; 88' J. Cooper (own goal) → 1-1.
Yellow cards: Derby 2, Millwall 3.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Derby 1.20, Millwall 0.91; shots 13-12 (4-2 on target); possession 55%-45%; corners 11-7; pass accuracy 71%-64%.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
J. Ward was Derby's highest-rated player at 7.6 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 3 tackles, won 4 of 9 duels.
C. Taylor was Millwall's highest-rated player at 7.7 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 4 tackles, won 14 of 16 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
10 December 2025: the Championship matchday 20 match ended Derby 1-1 Millwall. Goals: M. Clarke 81' (o.g.), J. Cooper 88' (o.g.). Match stats: possession Derby 55%, Millwall 45%; shots on target 4-2; expected goals (xG) 1.20-0.91.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.