Skip to content
TR

Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso

Primera División · Apertura - 13
Defensor Sporting
10
Full-timeHT 0-0
Progreso
90'Wunsch
Estadio Luis Franzini, MontevideoReferee A. OlmosTue 28 Apr 2026, 01:30capacity 18,000

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
2+ goals
72%
Clearleague base 70%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Defensor Sporting win
59%±7
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective hit
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · DEF 59% · X 24% · PRO 17%Predicted score 2-0 · Most likely: 1-0 14% · 2-0 12% · 1-1 11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Defensor Sporting✓
59%±7
Draw
24%±3
Progreso
17%±4
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Defensor Sporting savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %30 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %23 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %8 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Defensor Sporting'ın gol beklentisini %8 artırıyor
  • Defensor Sporting hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %2 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 2-0 12%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 14%2-0 12%1-1 11%2-1 9%0-0 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals DEF 1.70 · PRO 0.80

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓ 0–1 goals72%
  • 3+ goals✓ 0–2 goals47% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals25%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: DEF 45% · PRO 18%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
28%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee A. Olmos · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
O. Riveroexpected 54'17%
J. Alvarezexpected 87'14%
F. Bernalexpected 52'13%
A. Duarteexpected 31'12%
R. Viegaexpected 76'11%
A. Soriaexpected 49'10%
A. Rossoexpected 83'10%
G. de los Santosexpected 90'9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

27 April 2026: the Primera División match ended Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso. Goals: N. Wunsch 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Defensor Sporting · next match
Progreso · next match