Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
4 sections02:2127 September 2026: the Primera División match ended Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Danubio scored first, in the 20th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 20' E. Velazquez (own goal) → 0-1.
Yellow cards: Defensor Sporting 2, Danubio 2.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 0-0 in the second.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Defensor Sporting 47%, draw 30%, Danubio 24%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
27 September 2026: the Primera División match ended Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio. Goals: E. Velazquez 20' (o.g.).
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.