Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro
Primera División · Clausura - 10Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections02:5110 October 2026: the Primera División match ended Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Cerro came from behind in the second half to win. Defensor Sporting scored first, in the 16th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 16' X. Biscayzacu → 1-0; 52' B. Montenegro → 2-0; 77' A. Miranda → 2-1; 86' A. Macelli → 2-2; 90' B. Morales (penalty) → 2-3.
Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera (Cerro) was sent off in the 45th minute; Damián Suárez (Cerro) was sent off in the 57th minute; yellow cards: Defensor Sporting 7, Cerro 5.
Statistical comparison
Shots 7-15 (4-7 on target); possession 48%-52%; corners 5-1.
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 1-3 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: X. Biscayzacu, B. Montenegro, A. Miranda, A. Macelli, B. Morales.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Defensor Sporting 50%, draw 29%, Cerro 21%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
10 October 2026: the Primera División match ended Defensor Sporting 2-3 Cerro. Goals: X. Biscayzacu 16', B. Montenegro 52', A. Miranda 77', A. Macelli 86', B. Morales 90' (pen). Match stats: possession Defensor Sporting 48%, Cerro 52%; shots on target 4-7.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.