Danubio 1-2 Progreso
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
5 sections23:34Danubio lost to Progreso 1-2 in the Primera División on 30 May 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Progreso came from behind in the second half to win. Danubio scored first, in the 26th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 26' J. Pereyra → 1-0; 81' G. Silva → 1-1; 90' G. Silva → 1-2.
Yellow cards: Danubio 2, Progreso 2.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 0-2 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: J. Pereyra, G. Silva.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Danubio 50%, draw 26%, Progreso 24%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Danubio lost to Progreso 1-2 in the Primera División on 30 May 2026. Goals: J. Pereyra 26', G. Silva 81', G. Silva 90'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.