Skip to content
TR

Danubio 2-2 Progreso

Primera División · Apertura - 4
Danubio
22
Full-timeHT 1-1
Progreso
15'Kidd (OG)75'Fernandez
Viera36'Costantino (OG)90'
Referee J. FeresSat 28 Feb 2026, 23:00

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
75%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective miss
Highlight 2
Danubio win
50%±7
Notableleague base 41%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · DAN 50% · X 26% · PRO 24%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-0 13% · 1-1 12% · 2-0 9%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Danubio
50%±7
Draw✓
26%±3
Progreso
24%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %26 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Danubio hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %10 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Danubio'ın gol beklentisini %10 artırıyor
  • Danubio savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %3 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 13%1-1 12%2-0 9%2-1 9%0-0 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals DAN 1.51 · PRO 0.98

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓72%
  • 3+ goals✓47% ±6
  • 4+ goals✓25%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±4 · clean sheet: DAN 38% · PRO 22%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
28%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee J. Feres · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
F. Rodríguezexpected 84'24%
S. Felipeexpected 90'21%
P. Silesexpected 90'16%
C. Grossmüllerexpected 90'14%
R. Viegaexpected 76'14%
A. Rossoexpected 83'12%
L. Sosaexpected 90'12%
G. Andradaexpected 90'11%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

28 February 2026: the Primera División match ended Danubio 2-2 Progreso. Goals: F. Kidd 15' (o.g.), S. Viera 36', S. Fernandez 75', I. Costantino 90' (o.g.).

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

Related matches

Danubio · next match
Progreso · next match