Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: Dalberson 7.7 · Marcelo Carné 7.6 · Calebe 7.5
Match analysis
5 sections10:25Cuiaba beat Vila Nova 1-0 in the Serie B matchday 13 on 14 June 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. The decisive goals came after the interval. Cuiaba scored first, in the 90th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 90' Calebe Costa → 1-0.
Yellow cards: Cuiaba 1, Vila Nova 1.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Cuiaba 2.04, Vila Nova 0.60; shots 7-10 (4-3 on target); possession 51%-49%; corners 5-2; pass accuracy 85%-81%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 1.44.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
Marcelo Carné was Cuiaba's highest-rated player at 7.6 in 90 minutes: 3 saves.
Dalberson was Vila Nova's highest-rated player at 7.7 in 90 minutes: 3 saves.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Cuiaba 46%, draw 31%, Vila Nova 23%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova (Serie B matchday 13, 14 June 2026) finished 1-0. Goals: Calebe Costa 90'. Match stats: possession Cuiaba 51%, Vila Nova 49%; shots on target 4-3; expected goals (xG) 2.04-0.60.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.