CSKA Sofia 0-0 (pen. 5-4) Qarabag
Europa League · Qualifying · Round 2Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Match analysis
4 sections05:18CSKA Sofia drew with Qarabag 0-0 after extra time (5-4 on penalties) in the UEFA Europa League on 30 July 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-0 at half-time. There were no goals.
Goals and key moments
No goals yet.
Yellow cards: CSKA Sofia 6, Qarabag 3.
Statistical comparison
Shots 12-22 (3-6 on target); possession 42%-58%; corners 2-10.
Goals by half: 0-0 in the first, 0-0 in the second.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): CSKA Sofia 41%, draw 27%, Qarabag 32%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
CSKA Sofia drew with Qarabag 0-0 (5-4 on penalties) in the UEFA Europa League on 30 July 2026. Match stats: possession CSKA Sofia 42%, Qarabag 58%; shots on target 3-6.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.