CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Lig gücü farkı: Ligue 1, First League'den daha güçlü; bu fark iki takımın gol beklentisi dengesini %53 deplasman lehine kaydırıyor
- CSKA Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %34 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Monaco hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %28 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- CSKA Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: CSKA Sofia'ın gol beklentisini %20 artırıyor (Avrupa kupası maçlarındaki iç saha etkisi)
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 1-2 9%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals CSK 1.28 · MON 1.56
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 24%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓77%
- 3+ goals✓56% ±6
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals33%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±5 · clean sheet: CSK 21% · MON 28%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: CSK 12 · MON 1
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
15 October 2026: the UEFA Conference League league phase matchday 1 match ended CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco. Goals: P. Brunner 3', A. Fati 43', J. Zwarts 76'. Match stats: possession CSKA Sofia 50%, Monaco 50%; shots on target 5-5; expected goals (xG) 1.28-1.32.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record