Como 2-1 Parma
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match result
calibrated · slope 1.00Why this estimate? 5 factors
- Parma hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %30 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Como hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %28 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Parma savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %14 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- Como savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %16 daha iyi (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
- İç saha avantajı: Como'ın gol beklentisini %10 artırıyor
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Score
calibrated · slope 1.00Predicted score 2-0 13%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.
Most likely scores (top 5)
Expected goals COM 2.04 · PAR 0.71
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Total goals
calibrated · slope 0.98Most likely: 2 goals 24%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Goal lines
2+ · 3+ · 4+- 2+ goals✓78%
- 3+ goals✓54% ±8
- 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals30%
On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Both teams score
calibrated · slope 1.00±4 · clean sheet: COM 49% · PAR 13%
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time result
calibrated · slope 1.02Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Half-time / full-time
calibrated · slope 1.00Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Corners
calibrated · slope 1.00This match: COM 11 · PAR 4
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Cards
calibrated · slope 1.09Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).
Referee Giuseppe Mucera · the referee's card history is included.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
First goal
untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Player scoring chances
up to 8untestedStatistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
14 September 2026: the Serie A matchday 4 match ended Como 2-1 Parma. Goals: J. Ramon 23', Kaiki 83', D. Romero 90'. Match stats: possession Como 64%, Parma 36%; shots on target 7-4; expected goals (xG) 2.98-1.15.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record