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Boston River 1-2 Progreso

Primera División · Clausura - 7
Boston River
12
Full-timeHT 0-1
Progreso
71'Siri
Martinez (OG)9'Lopez90'
Estadio Campeones Olímpicos, Ciudad de FloridaReferee M. De ArmasSat 19 Sept 2026, 18:00capacity 5,000

Model accuracy

Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track record

There was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.

The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?

Highlight 1
0–3 goals
78%
Clearleague base 78%calibrated
retrospective hit
Highlight 2
Boston River win
48%±6
Notableleague base 40%calibrated
retrospective miss
No third clear market here; weak estimates are not added.
Match result · BRİ 48% · X 28% · PRO 24%Predicted score 1-0 · Most likely: 1-0 14% · 1-1 13% · 0-0 10%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match result

calibrated · slope 1.00
Boston River
48%±6
Draw
28%±2
Progreso✓
24%±5
Why this estimate? 5 factors
  • Progreso savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %22 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Progreso hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %18 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Boston River hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Boston River'ın gol beklentisini %9 artırıyor
  • Boston River savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha zayıf (dinamik takım gücü, gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Score

calibrated · slope 1.00

Predicted score 1-0 14%Consistent with the result estimate; chosen so that over a season the shown scores are distributed like real scores. Any single score usually has an 8–15% chance.

Most likely scores (top 5)

1-0 14%1-1 13%0-0 10%2-0 10%2-1 9%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Expected goals BRİ 1.39 · PRO 0.91

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Total goals

calibrated · slope 0.98

Most likely: 2 goals 26%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goal lines

2+ · 3+ · 4+
  • 2+ goals✓69%
  • 3+ goals✓44% ±4
  • 4+ goals✓ 0–3 goals22%
2+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.003+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.044+ goals: calibrated · slope 1.06

On 3+ and 4+ goals the model has been more confident than results justified (backtest); in highlights ranking these markets compete with adjusted probabilities.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Both teams score

calibrated · slope 1.00

±3 · clean sheet: BRİ 40% · PRO 25%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time result

calibrated · slope 1.02
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time / full-time

calibrated · slope 1.00
Half-time and half-time / full-time probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Corners

no data
No corner prediction for this match.

Not enough corner data in this competition; the model did not produce a prediction. Season data below (if any).

Cards

calibrated · slope 1.09
Yellow card distribution and lines are in Premium.Try Premium
Chance of a red card
29%

Team card model (m7t4): the teams' card tendencies, the referee and the balance of the match. Backtest slope is 1.07 for total yellows, 0.99 for 4+, 0.93 / 0.90 for 5+ / 6+ (slightly overconfident). The red card comes from the same model (backtest slope 0.93).

Referee M. De Armas · the referee's card history is included.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

First goal

untested
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Player scoring chances

up to 8untested
G. Lopezexpected 59'15%
R. Viegaexpected 76'13%
V. Adamoexpected 59'11%
A. Rossoexpected 83'11%
G. Andradaexpected 90'10%
Alex Silvaexpected 90'10%
A. Anelloexpected 23'8%
J. Gutiérrezexpected 27'8%

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Match summary

Boston River lost to Progreso 1-2 in the Primera División on 19 September 2026. Goals: F. Martinez 9' (o.g.), N. Siri 71', N. Lopez 90'.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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Progreso · next match