BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: H. Ibrahim 8.7 · Gļebs Mihaļcovs 7.9 · A. Appiah 7.9
Match analysis
5 sections19:1319 October 2026: the Virsliga matchday 33 match ended BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. BFC Daugavpils scored first, in the 1st minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 1' Daniel Kiwinda, assisted by Ervins pinaskins → 1-0; 53' Andrews Appiah (penalty) → 1-1; 57' Ervins pinaskins, assisted by Daniel Kiwinda → 2-1.
Yellow cards: BFC Daugavpils 0, Auda 2.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) BFC Daugavpils 1.08, Auda 2.53; shots 7-15 (5-4 on target); possession 44%-56%; corners 3-2.
Auda created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 1-1 in the second.
Standout players
Gļebs Mihaļcovs was BFC Daugavpils's highest-rated player at 7.9 in 90 minutes: 9 tackles, won 11 of 11 duels.
H. Ibrahim was Auda's highest-rated player at 8.7 in 90 minutes: 4 key passes, 6 tackles, won 11 of 14 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): BFC Daugavpils 27%, draw 28%, Auda 45%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
19 October 2026: the Virsliga matchday 33 match ended BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda. Goals: Daniel Kiwinda 1', Andrews Appiah 53' (pen), Ervins pinaskins 57'. Match stats: possession BFC Daugavpils 44%, Auda 56%; shots on target 5-4; expected goals (xG) 1.08-2.53.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.