Aurora 1-0 Malacateco
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Starting XIs
Line-ups ›Match analysis
5 sections00:4630 August 2026: the Liga Nacional matchday 6 match ended Aurora 1-0 Malacateco.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Aurora scored first, in the 43rd minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 43' D. Ruiz → 1-0.
G. Vasquez (Malacateco) was sent off in the 24th minute; J. Vivas missed a penalty in the 39th minute; yellow cards: Aurora 1, Malacateco 1.
Statistical comparison
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 0-0 in the second.
Standout players
Goal scorers: D. Ruiz.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Aurora 52%, draw 25%, Malacateco 23%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
30 August 2026: the Liga Nacional matchday 6 match ended Aurora 1-0 Malacateco. Goals: D. Ruiz 43'.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.