Atalanta 4-0 Parma
Model accuracy
Match stats
Standouts: M. Carnesecchi 8.3 · C. De Ketelaere 8.3 · N. Krstović 8.3
Match analysis
5 sections20:2725 January 2026: the Serie A matchday 22 match ended Atalanta 4-0 Parma.
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Result and story of the match
It was 2-0 at half-time. Atalanta scored first, in the 15th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 15' G. Scamacca (penalty) → 1-0; 24' M. De Roon, assisted by C. De Ketelaere → 2-0; 73' G. Raspadori, assisted by N. Krstovic → 3-0; 90' N. Krstovic → 4-0.
Yellow cards: Atalanta 1, Parma 0.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Atalanta 4.18, Parma 1.65; shots 21-15 (9-2 on target); possession 48%-52%; corners 6-9; pass accuracy 85%-82%.
Chance quality backed up the result: an xG gap of 2.53.
Goals by half: 2-0 in the first, 2-0 in the second.
Standout players
N. Krstović was Atalanta's highest-rated player at 8.3 in 29 minutes: 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 shot on target, 2 key passes, won 2 of 6 duels.
Adrián Bernabé was Parma's highest-rated player at 8.0 in 90 minutes: 7 key passes, 1 tackle, won 4 of 7 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
25 January 2026: the Serie A matchday 22 match ended Atalanta 4-0 Parma. Goals: G. Scamacca 15' (pen), M. De Roon 24', G. Raspadori 73', N. Krstovic 90'. Match stats: possession Atalanta 48%, Parma 52%; shots on target 9-2; expected goals (xG) 4.18-1.65.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.