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Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia

First League · Matchweek 12
Arda Kardzhali
18:00
Awaiting line-upsArena Arda
Levski Sofia
Arena Arda, KardzhaliSat 24 Oct 2026, 18:00capacity 15,000

Match result probability

pre-match
Arda Kardzhali
19%±5
Draw
26%±3
Levski Sofia
55%±8
±: uncertainty range (80% simulation band)
Locked: 23 Oct 09:01

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Why this estimate?

· the 5 factors that moved the model most
  • Levski Sofia savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %84 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Levski Sofia hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %55 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • İç saha avantajı: Arda Kardzhali'ın gol beklentisini %23 artırıyor
  • Arda Kardzhali hücumu kendi ligi ortalamasından %12 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)
  • Arda Kardzhali savunması kendi ligi ortalamasından %5 daha iyi (zaman ağırlıklı gol+xG verisine göre)

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Estimate history

72 h → kick-off
0255075100-72 h-48 h-24 h-12 hkick-offLocked · 00:50 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 01:01 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 02:00 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 03:00 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 04:01 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 05:00 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 06:01 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 07:00 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 08:00 · Arda Kardzhali 18%Locked · 09:01 · Arda Kardzhali 19%
Arda KardzhaliDrawLevski Sofialine-upsinjuryfinal estimateestimate row

The record uses the last estimate locked before kick-off; live estimates are not scored.

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Market groups

Result

dc-v0
Most likely scores
0-115%
1-112%
0-212%
Winning margin, first goal and score matrix are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Goals

dc-v0
Goal thresholds
3+ goals41%
0–2 goals59%
  • 1+ goals90%
  • 2+ goals68%
  • 3+ goals41%
  • 4+ goals21%
  • 5+ goals9%
Both teams score
Total goal distribution and team goals are in Premium.Try Premium

Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.

Half-time, HT/FT, corner, card and player probabilities are in Premium.Try Premium

Match summary

Arda Kardzhali face Levski Sofia in the First League matchday 12 on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC. Venue: Arena Arda, Kardzhali. The statistical model estimate makes Levski Sofia favourites at 55% (80% interval 48%–63%); draw 26%, Arda Kardzhali 19%. Most likely single score: 0-1 (15%). Chance of 3+ goals: 41%. The estimate was locked on 23 October 2026 at 06:01 UTC and will be scored publicly in our track record.

Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record

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