Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon
Model accuracy
Retrospective model estimate · generated after the match, not in the track recordThere was no estimate locked before kick-off for this match. The model was run after the match using only data known before kick-off (the result was not used); it is not counted in the track record or accuracy stats.
The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: Keito Nakamura 8.5 · C. Coosemans 8.3 · P. Šulc 7.9
Match analysis
5 sections04:03Anderlecht lost to Lyon 1-2 in the UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 1 on 16 September 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 0-2 at half-time. Lyon scored first, in the 8th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 8' N. Nartey → 0-1; 22' K. Nakamura, assisted by M. Ouedraogo → 0-2; 61' M. Cvetkovic, assisted by A. Maamar → 1-2.
Yellow cards: Anderlecht 0, Lyon 2.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Anderlecht 1.43, Lyon 1.27; shots 14-13 (5-10 on target); possession 58%-42%; corners 6-4; pass accuracy 83%-78%.
Goals by half: 0-2 in the first, 1-0 in the second.
Standout players
C. Coosemans was Anderlecht's highest-rated player at 8.3 in 90 minutes: 8 saves.
Keito Nakamura was Lyon's highest-rated player at 8.5 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 2 shots on target, 4 key passes, 3 tackles, won 6 of 10 duels.
How the model did
There was no model estimate locked before kick-off for this match, so it is not part of the track record.
Retrospective model estimate (generated after the match from pre-match data only; not part of the track record): Anderlecht 38%, draw 27%, Lyon 36%.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Anderlecht lost to Lyon 1-2 in the UEFA Europa League league phase matchday 1 on 16 September 2026. Goals: N. Nartey 8', K. Nakamura 22', M. Cvetkovic 61'. Match stats: possession Anderlecht 58%, Lyon 42%; shots on target 5-10; expected goals (xG) 1.43-1.27.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.