Albacete 2-0 Eldense
Model accuracy
Locked 25 Oct 17:59The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: San Bartolomé 8.2 · Higinio Marín 7.8 · Víctor Valverde 7.7
Match analysis
5 sections06:10Albacete beat Eldense 2-0 in the Segunda División matchday 11 on 25 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 2-0 at half-time. Albacete scored first, in the 20th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 20' Víctor San Bartolomé → 1-0; 45' Higinio Marín, assisted by Victor Valverde da Silva → 2-0.
Yellow cards: Albacete 4, Eldense 4.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Albacete 1.06, Eldense 0.94; shots 19-10 (4-1 on target); possession 37%-63%; corners 10-4.
Goals by half: 2-0 in the first, 0-0 in the second. Shots: 14-2 before the break, 5-8 after it.
Standout players
San Bartolomé was Albacete's highest-rated player at 8.2 in 63 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 tackle, won 2 of 7 duels. Minute markers: goal ≈22–23', shot on target ≈22–23', key pass ≈36–37'.
F. Smand was Eldense's highest-rated player at 7.0 in 90 minutes: 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 6 of 7 duels. Minute markers: tackle ≈42–43', tackle ≈48–49', key pass ≈59–60'.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate makes Albacete favourites at 42% (80% interval 34%–50%); draw 26%, Eldense 32%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Expected goals in the model: Albacete 1.50, Eldense 1.30. Chance of 3+ goals: 53%; both teams to score: 55%.
The model's most likely outcome was Albacete win (42%); the actual result was Albacete win (42%). The outcome call was a hit. Its most likely score was 1-1 (worth 0 points under our prediction game rules).
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Albacete vs Eldense (Segunda División matchday 11, 25 October 2026) finished 2-0. Goals: Víctor San Bartolomé 20', Higinio Marín 45'. Match stats: possession Albacete 37%, Eldense 63%; shots on target 4-1; expected goals (xG) 1.06-0.94. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate makes Albacete favourites at 42% (80% interval 34%–50%); draw 26%, Eldense 32%. The outcome call was a hit.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.