Akron 3-1 Dynamo
Premier League · Matchweek 12Model accuracy
Locked 24 Oct 12:25The 3 clearest pre-match estimates and how they turned out. How are these chosen?
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match stats
Standouts: A. Shumanskiy 8.1 · K. Bistrović 7.5 · Y. Gladyshev 7.5
Match analysis
5 sections17:56Akron beat Dynamo 3-1 in the Premier League matchday 12 on 24 October 2026.
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Result and story of the match
It was 1-0 at half-time. Akron scored first, in the 17th minute.
Goals and key moments
Goals: 17' Artem Shumanskiy, assisted by Dmitriy Pestryakov → 1-0; 55' Yaroslav Gladyshev, assisted by Ivan Sergeev → 1-1; 70' Kristijan Bistrović → 2-1; 90+4' Maksim Boldyrev → 3-1.
Yellow cards: Akron 4, Dynamo 0.
Statistical comparison
Expected goals (xG) Akron 0.86, Dynamo 2.14; shots 11-25 (6-5 on target); possession 40%-60%; corners 0-11.
Dynamo created the better chances, but the scoreline did not reflect it.
Goals by half: 1-0 in the first, 2-1 in the second. Shots: 6-10 before the break, 5-15 after it.
Standout players
A. Shumanskiy was Akron's highest-rated player at 8.1 in 90 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 4 tackles, won 9 of 16 duels. Minute markers: goal ≈17–18', shot on target ≈17–18', successful dribble ≈23–24'.
Y. Gladyshev was Dynamo's highest-rated player at 7.5 in 73 minutes: 1 goal, 1 shot on target, 1 key pass, 2 tackles, won 2 of 6 duels. Minute markers: key pass ≈26–27', goal ≈56–57', shot on target ≈56–57'.
How the model did
The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Dynamo win 55% (80% interval 47%–62%), draw 22%, Akron win 22%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Expected goals in the model: Akron 1.21, Dynamo 1.92. Chance of 3+ goals: 59%; both teams to score: 58%.
The model's most likely outcome was Dynamo win (55%); the actual result was Akron win (22%). The outcome call was a miss. Its most likely score was 1-2 (worth 0 points under our prediction game rules).
Scoring rule: each match is graded on the last estimate locked before kick-off, which cannot be changed afterwards.
Statistical model estimate; for information and entertainment only.
Match summary
Akron vs Dynamo (Premier League matchday 12, 24 October 2026) finished 3-1. Goals: Artem Shumanskiy 17', Yaroslav Gladyshev 55', Kristijan Bistrović 70', Maksim Boldyrev 90+4'. Match stats: possession Akron 40%, Dynamo 60%; shots on target 6-5; expected goals (xG) 0.86-2.14. The locked pre-match statistical model estimate: Dynamo win 55% (80% interval 47%–62%), draw 22%, Akron win 22%. The outcome call was a miss.
Updated: · Sources: Methodology, Track record
Points are only for rankings and badges; they have no other value.The model's score is now the “predicted score”: a pick that agrees with the match outcome and follows the real score distribution over a season (previously the single most likely score). Past points are unchanged.